Research by: Fabian Burkhardt (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies), Maiia Guseva (University of Muenster), Timofei Mikhasev (Central European University), Aleksandra Vaisberg (Yale University), and Mariia Zheleznova (University of Bologna)
Key findings
- Core mechanisms of elite management persist despite the war. While the invasion of Ukraine has increased pressure on the system, the fundamental processes of elite recruitment, career mobility, and post-dismissal integration have remained largely stable and adaptive.
- The system relies on a triad of fear, incentives, and socialization.
- Fear: Repression has evolved from “soft” measures (travel bans, surveillance) to “hard” repression (criminal charges). 2024 saw a sharp spike in hard repression, with 10 deputy heads arrested, including high-ranking defense officials.
- Incentives: The system continues to offer predictable career paths. Most appointments still come from within the federal executive, maintaining a closed, institutionalized loop of upward mobility rather than chaotic, ad-hoc replacements.
- Socialization: Advancement requires deep integration into Moscow-centric networks and specific educational institutions. A degree from RANEPA is increasingly vital, acting as a filter for ideological conformity and professional networking.
- Fear: Repression has evolved from “soft” measures (travel bans, surveillance) to “hard” repression (criminal charges). 2024 saw a sharp spike in hard repression, with 10 deputy heads arrested, including high-ranking defense officials.
- Corruption charges are weaponized for wartime discipline. Historically used for elite infighting, corruption charges are now deployed to signal that unsanctioned rent-seeking in the defense sector is intolerable during wartime. This shift aims to enforce efficiency in the war effort rather than just settle scores.
- No “New Elite” of war veterans is emerging yet. Despite Putin’s rhetoric about “Special Military Operation” veterans becoming the new elite, data shows they are largely relegated to lower-level regional posts or ideological roles (e.g., education, youth policy) rather than technocratic positions of real power.
- Western sanctions have proven irrelevant to elite careers. Personal sanctions by Western nations have had no observable effect on the promotion, tenure, or dismissal of Russian officials. They serve neither as a deterrent nor as a “badge of honor.”
- The “revolving door” remains open. Dismissal from a federal post is rarely a career ender. Many dismissed officials move to state corporations or find senior roles in the private sector, maintaining their status within the ruling class.
- Technocracy coexists with nepotism. While dynastic families secure top spots, the broader bureaucratic system (“neo-nomenklatura”) still functions on meritocratic principles for the rank-and-file, balancing personal loyalty with administrative competence.
Introduction
Pavel Fradkov was appointed deputy minister of defense in June 2024, shortly after Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu was replaced by Andrei Belousov. Like Belousov, whose father, Rem Belousov, worked as a Soviet economist at Gosplan and advised the Kosygin reforms, Fradkov comes from a notable nomenklatura family. In the 1980s, Pavel’s father, Mikhail Fradkov, was a high-ranking official in the Soviet Union’s foreign trade hierarchy. Under Putin, Mikhail Fradkov served as Prime Minister from 2004 to 2007 and as director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service SVR from 2007 to 2016. He now chairs the board of directors of one of Russia’s largest arms manufacturers, Almaz-Antei. Piotr Fradkov, Pavel’s brother, is the chairman of the state-owned Promsviazbank, the main lender of Russia’s arms industry.
Pavel Fradkov is a good example of the hereditary nature of the post-Soviet Russian ruling class, which inherited political power and access to economic resources from the Soviet Union (Snegovaya and Petrov 2022; Marandici 2024). However, overemphasizing the presence of dynastic families obscures a potentially more fundamental feature of Putinism: the system of recruiting, replacing, and reproducing officials, which increasingly resembles a neo-nomenklatura system. As far back as the early 2000s, scholars pointed to the revival of cadre reserves as a reanimation of the Soviet nomenklatura appointment legacy (Huskey 2004; Kryshtanovskaya 2005). The relationship between cadre reserve membership and career promotion appeared to be weak. Additionally, the recruitment system and the context of post-Soviet Russia’s political economy differed significantly from the Soviet personnel system.
Over time, more and more similarities to the classical nomenklatura system have emerged (Petrov 2011; Nisnevich 2014; Petrov 2024; Panfilova 2024). For instance, the seminal role played by the Communist Party and the KGB in overseeing appointments in the Soviet Union has largely been replaced by screening processes in the Presidential Administration and the FSB. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and wartime Putinism have expedited this trend, further blurring the differences. With Western personal sanctions targeting many officials and de facto bans on travel to “unfriendly” countries where these officials previously kept their property, the neo-nomenklatura is increasingly confined within the borders of the Russian Federation. Moreover, as the state’s share of the economy increases through state-owned enterprises, state corporations, and public procurement, the role of the private sector in nomenklatura circulation diminishes further. In this analysis, we argue that understanding the transformation of how Putin rules the Russian nomenklatura is pivotal to understanding the resilience of wartime Russia.
The Dataset
To understand how Putin governs the Russian neo-nomenklatura, we focused on a specific group of state officials: deputy ministers and deputy heads of federal executive bodies, such as services and agencies. While these officials may not represent the highest echelon of Russia’s ruling class, they play a pivotal role in state governance. They serve as a conduit, connecting ministers—political appointees with close ties to major elite groups—to the rank-and-file bureaucracy. The recent dismissals and appointments of deputy ministers in the aftermath of the dismissal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in May 2024 serve as a salient example of the profound insights that can be gleaned from this stratum. Frequent reshuffles of these deputies could, for example, indicate a major regime destabilization. The data on dismissals and appointments of this fourth tier of the Russian bureaucracy were collected from pravo.gov.ru. The biographical information of these approximately 700 officials was retrieved from publicly available sources and coded—both automatically and manually—from May 2018 to May 2024, a period that corresponds to the entire fourth presidential term of Vladimir Putin. The aforementioned timespan encompasses two significant events: the government reshuffle in 2020, which entailed the dismissal of then-Prime Minister Dmitrii Medvedev and the appointment of Mikhail Mishustin, and the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This extensive dataset offers a distinctive perspective on personnel politics within a personalist autocracy. The dataset also sheds light on the impact of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on nomenklatura recruitment in Russia, exploring whether or not the invasion had a significant influence on the recruitment process. The dataset is also forward-looking because many of these officials can be considered part of an emerging bureaucratic ruling class that will play a role in shaping politics in post-Putin Russia.
In the subsequent sections, an inquiry will be made into the three instruments at Putin’s disposal for the management of the nomenklatura and for striking a balance between loyalty and technocratic management of the Russian state, namely fear, incentives, and socialization.
Fear
As Russia progresses toward a “dictatorship of fear,” it has become evident that repression is not only directed toward non-systemic opposition and other regime critics, but also increasingly applied to systemic actors, including elites and the nomenklatura. The full-scale invasion accelerated this trend, albeit in a phased manner that depended on the type of repression applied (soft or hard). Soft repression was implemented from the early phase of the war. These measures comprised a series of substantial restrictions, including limitations on foreign travel and domestic movement within the Russian Federation. Senior officials were asked to hand over their diplomatic and private passports to security officers. Travel abroad was permitted exclusively to destinations not included on the government’s list of unfriendly countries, contingent on prior approval from the Kremlin (Seddon 2023). Individuals not subject to such travel restrictions were routinely subjected to interrogation by the FSB upon their return from international travel (Kozlov 2023). The nomenklatura experienced a constant fear of surveillance by the security services, both in the office and during work and private meetings outside of government buildings. To protect their location, they often took measures such as turning off mobile phones or opting for a walk in a park over a cafe (Prokopenko 2025). Another comparatively soft repressive measure included the informal ban on stepping down from one’s position of one’s own volition. The actors in question were stuck in their current positions, bound by the Kremlin’s desires. The security services exerted informal pressure to convey to officials intending to leave their positions that subsequent appointments in the state or private sectors would be impeded. It is important to note, however, that this does not imply that no officials were dismissed in the wake of the war’s onset. Our dataset indicates that the monthly dismissal rates observed in 2022 and 2023 do not seem to deviate significantly from those recorded in previous years. The elevated turnover rate observed in 2020 and 2021 was predominantly attributable to the government reshuffle that occurred in January 2020, with Dmitrii Medvedev relinquishing his position to Mikhail Mishustin. The length of time in office for dismissed officials was similar after the war compared to before. Although a considerable number of dismissals were seemingly routine, the Kremlin also demonstrated through public channels that certain dismissals were a consequence of policy failures or disloyalty. In October 2022, Deputy Minister of Transport Aleksandr Sukhanov was dismissed shortly after explosions on the Crimean Bridge, a major security breach. Consequently, supervisory powers over the bridge were transferred from MinTrans to the FSB. In February 2024, Denis Guliaev, who served as Deputy Head of the Federal Service for the Control of Alcohol and Tobacco Markets (Rosalkogoltabakkontrol), was dismissed. Pro-Kremlin outlets have advanced the narrative that Guliaev’s dismissal was a consequence of his alleged failure to disclose foreign property holdings.
Trends in the use of criminal proceedings as a form of hard repression remained relatively stable until 2023. According to our dataset, from 2018 to 2023, an average of slightly more than two criminal cases per year were initiated against deputy ministers and other deputy heads of federal executive bodies. However, in 2024 alone, 10 deputy heads were arrested on criminal charges, including three deputy Ministers of Defense (Timur Ivanov, Pavel Popov, and Dmitrii Bulgakov). As a general rule, criminal charges were brought against officials with a civilian background: not only do most officials have civilian backgrounds, but civilian officials are also much easier targets for law enforcement. While corruption was cited as the primary rationale for the initiation of criminal proceedings, the scope of this alleged corruption has been observed to shift from the civilian sector to the military domain. The war against Ukraine is personally important to Putin and his regime, so he has sought greater “efficiency.” The war has created new, large-scale flows of rents into which key business elites from the Putin era have successfully inserted themselves. At the same time, the overall volume of rents has contracted and shifted into the sphere of military expenditures. This has heightened conflicts among elites over access to these rents (Yakovlev 2025).